JPMorgan Healthcare Conference Recap, Part 1

VRNA, ARQT, AVDL, APLS, SWTX, EWTX, KNSA.

Hello everyone! It’s a busy busy busy week. Let’s jump in! I prioritized the most important companies to me for this Part 1 but I’m going to try to do a Part 2 by Friday or Monday and a Part 3 with closing thoughts by the end of next week. I’ve had some personal stuff come up this week (bad timing!) but here’s ~2,500 words on my thoughts so far…

Press releases that came out before Monday’s sessions started:

Verona Pharma VRNA 0.00%↑ reported incredible Q4 2024 sales of $36 million vs. consensus estimates I had of $27.43 million. Adam Feuerstein reported the Visible Alpha consensus was $15.6 million. Either way, it’s an incredible launch so far! The stock closed at $44.81 on Monday before the announcement. On Friday at the close it was…$45.20. It was that kind of last week in biotech. And this week ain’t much either!

Source: The greatest comedy show of the last decade, I Think You Should Leave.

Arcutis ARQT 0.00%↑ reported excellent Q4 2024 sales. $63 million vs. consensus estimates I had at $54.95 million. I feel like another excellent quarter helps validate my thesis here. When you look at the diagram below, keep in mind: PsO has not even had the foam launch which is where much of the unmet need (hair-bearing areas) exists, Seb Derm is still cranking along and is the only FDA approved branded product in that indication, the atopic dermatitis launch is only four months old, the company just got Medicaid coverage in most of the ~15 largest states so that boost to sales is yet to be determined, Medicare coverage is coming in 2025, and the Kowa partnership for primary care will not see inflection until 2025 as well. There are numerous catalysts to keep the growth flowing and the portfolio is already annualizing at a $252 million per year pace. As of Monday’s close when I write this it is probably sitting at less than 5x next year’s sales and clear path to 2025 profitability.

Source: Company deck.