My Top 10 Ideas As Of End of May 2024
Disclaimer: Not investment advice. Do your own research. For informational purposes only. I reserve the right to change positions after publishing as events change. Position rankings are accurate as of pre-market 5/27/2024 when writing was completed.
Hi all, I have some life events happening which prevent me from writing extensively or podcasting. I’m truly sorry for this but one thing I did want to be consistent on was keeping up my monthly Top 10 posts. I’m not sure when I can get back to writing but my intention is at least to keep these posts going in brief format to keep the Substack alive. But this will be sadly very brief and a little before the end of the month as I turn my attention to other matters.
My Current Top 10, By Position Size
#1: Edgewise Therapeutics (EWTX) [Last Month: #3]
I’m not sure how I feel about this working out to be my #1 position by dollar size at the end of the month but it has been stronger than other names and I’m sitting on a good cost basis. Two near-term catalysts with HCM data in Q3 and BMD data in Q4.
#2: Celcuity (CELC) [Last Month: #1]
Earnings call affirmed data still on track for 2H 2024. No changes and management still sounds confident, although I know that means nothing. Timeline still being intact for the wild type data is the most important development.
#3: Fulcrum Therapeutics (FULC) [Last Month: #4]
Fulcrum did a deal with Sanofi for ROW rights for FSHD and after some digesting of the terms I think it was a fair deal. Not great, not bad. It blunts a tiny bit of upside if the trial works and gives a little more protection on downside if the trial fails due to the upfront payment. The real moneymaker was always going to be the U.S. launch due to drug pricing in the U.S. and relatively large U.S. population of FSHD patients but this does give milestones and runway in the case of a successful trial that the company doesn’t need to take debt or an onerous royalty deal. Sanofi is a solid company, obviously. Overall, I’m fine with the deal and understand why they made it. My downside estimate is $2.25/sh if the trial fails now. With the share price faling this month and at $7.21 as I write this I think the downside is smaller than it has been in the last six months or so.
#4: Ovid Therapeutics (OVID) [Last Month: NR]
Ugh. Wish I could write more about this. It’s a special situation type of thing, they outlicensed a drug to Takeda and the data should be in the next four months or less. If both trials work, I think the stock re-rates fairly high based on milestones and royalties owed to them. Possibly up to 4x higher. I think the odds that both trials work is higher than 25%. We will see. I’d love to get into more detail but you can check company filings for more information and make your own determinations. If I can, I’ll podcast about it before data.
#5: Elevation Oncology (ELEV) [Last Month: #6]
Written about it, podcasted about it…what’s to say. Waiting on some actual news. A lot of negativity around the name suddenly. Not sure why but I don’t see it like that. Think they will have good monotherapy activity and safety with possible room to push the dose further. They have been opportunistic about using the ATM to raise money at the highs which I’m sure is pressuring the stock downwards but they have really extended their runway.
#6: Fibrogen (FGEN) [Last Month: NR]
I’m insane. Don’t follow me into any idea without doing research but especially this. Very risky, likely to fail. But the upside is insane. Can’t help myself. Probably shouldn’t be #6 but I managed to catch a legit bottom here so tempted to just let it ride…it’s been a good year so far so allowing myself to take one slightly insane risk. Again - I’m not endorsing this and a little embarassed to be listing it but trying to be fully transparent and accurate with these rankings each month, even as I grit my teeth.
#7: Nurix Therapeutics (NRIX) [Last Month: NR]
Possibly a best-in-class “degrader” platform. Where do I start? Another time. Recent data update they added to their slide deck was really impressive with dose escalation. CLL is a huge and fast moving market. Wish I could say more right now but with no imminent catalyst I have some time to give this a proper discussion later. Probably a sneaky acquisition target, too? Actually wouldn’t mind bumping this up more if it experiences another dip. Wasn’t aggressive enough over the past month in the 13s.
#8: Cullinan Therapeutics (CGEM) [Last Month: #10]
It’s up, it’s down, it’s volatile…sell the rips, buy the dips I suppose. It’s been a long time waiting for data updates on the various programs but now it seems the only thing people care about is autoimmune disease. And it’s certainly pricier than it was in the 9s but they also have a lot more cash per share. It’s a very different company than it was six months ago but #8 feels like the right spot for now. I’m excited for a time when all six programs are cranking and producing data updates or maybe when the company can focus on ~3 programs more specifically and outlicense or kill the rest.
#9: Insulet (PODD) [Last Month: #2]
Speaking of selling the rips, I have been doing some of that here in the last week. The stock had a relatively meritless (IMO) short report come out about it then after all that it rallied hard for days to new recent highs, possibly on short covering from the report which got very little traction or credence from specialists. That said, I’m ready for the company to fully launch G7 integration and new geographies so the growth engine can really start firing up and they can start posting some truly killer earnings numbers.
#10: BridgeBio (BBIO) [Last Month: #5]
Stock hasn’t been doing great but it mostly moves along with the XBI. Awaiting competitors’ “HELIOS-B” data and stuck in a holding pattern until then. Only in 2025 can the company really start to execute and either dissprove the doubters correct. Or…prove them correct if I’m wrong. We will see. I have some new ideas I like so I’m not sure this can hang in the Top 10.
Falling out of rankings: Avadel (AVDL), Chimerix (CMRX), Iteos (ITOS).
Avadel’s earnings were just a tad weaker than I hoped. Still will monitor it and have hope that it was just a new year/insurance coverage blip plus the launch is super early but it wasn’t Top 10 conviction for me currently.
Chimerix I was just too early I think. Sold for a small loss, will keep an eye on it still.
Iteos is kind of dead to me. Management did some fairly shady stuff this month (don’t really have time/energy/passion to get into it but I’m sure you can read about it elsewhere) and I just don’t need to be dealing with companies that operate like that. I know I’m currently just a small fish in the pond but even I have enough self respect to cut companies loose that operate as such. Actually was able to sell for a decent profit and won’t be looking back. Your mileage might vary but I didn’t care for their actions at all.
Okay that’s all I have time for this month, hope it made sense as I wrote this in one pass with no edit. It is important to me to keep this series going as a documented journal and I appreciate as always those of you who subscribe and read it. It means a lot to me! Thank you.
Matt