An Idea I Have Never Written About Before

A commercial-stage company has significantly derisked over the last year, has profitability in sight, a major Phase 3 catalyst in the next ~12 months, yet is down since approval.

When doing my (multiple) year-end posts in late 2024 I came across a curious sight. I noticed a company I once discarded as being too expensive (relative to my best ideas) had come down over -30% since I last looked. In fact, it looked to be a decent value now. I pulled up the most recent press releases…and was surprised to see their most recent quarter was full of multiple pieces of excellent news that should have moved the stock much, much higher. Was I reading it wrong?

I kept an eye on it and it continued to drift down. Finally, I had to start buying last Friday. Buying shares forced me to recheck all my valuation assumptions, the potential Total Addressable Market, the upcoming Phase 3 data catalyst, and even the underlying intellectual property. In fact, things looked even better than I originally thought.

So I’m going to write about it. It’s not in my 2025 “No Trades” portfolio because it really wasn’t on my radar as I wrote that post. Now I wish it was… but I’ll stay true to the “No Trades” rule for that model portfolio.

You, of course, can trade however you want! Note: Now I feel like I gotta put this disclaimer. Not financial advice. For entertainment. Do your own due diligence.

In fact, I think if I were to re-do my “No Trades” portfolio, not only would this idea make the list but I would just take my Top 12 ideas and weight them each 8.33%. Or maybe even just Top 10 at 10% each. There is really no need to make it more complicated than that. Find 10-12 great ideas, make them all the same in dollar amounts (because who knows what will reach fair value first), and then just sit on your hands until a material news event happens or a better idea displaces the lowest quality one. When they reach fair value, sell.

Which way, Western man?

More on this at a later date.

Okay, on to the idea…

I have to put the paywall up now because there needs to be some benefit to being a paid subscriber. (I mean…only $10/month, c’mon?!?!?! You need a hard sell???)

Okay, here is a new commercial-stage biotech idea that could start moving as early as Monday if they pre-announce Q4 revenue and it beats estimates…