JPMorgan Healthcare Conference Recap, Part 2 (Nine New Ideas)

I am reinvigorated and oddly excited about clinical-stage companies for once.

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I know I said last week I would do a Part 2 and then Part 3 for my JPM week recap but I’ve decided just to jam it all together into one long email right now. I put on a Paul Oakenfold essential mix, knocked back a few espresso shots, and just jammed this out and I think it’s actually really complete on my favorite takeaways from the conference.

Next week, I’ll have a post all subscribers can read in full for free with performance updates and comments on the 2025 “No Trades” portfolio. But I encourage people to subscribe to the paid tier to read all of this post right here because I have A LOT of thoughts after taking in tons of JPM presentation replays over the last 9 days!

Starting off with commercial-stage names I absolutely love:

I’m going to try not to belabor the point because you know I have my commercial-stage favorites and I touched on a lot of them last week. I thought APLS 0.00%↑ and SWTX 0.00%↑ had great JPM presentations and are on their way to potentially having multiple potential blockbuster drugs. ARQT 0.00%↑ announced a great Q4 sales number and has lots of catalysts ahead but I think I have covered them to death at this point, really nothing left to say there until there is more news. VRNA 0.00%↑ is a single-product company, which always makes me nervous at this valuation, but the sales growth is phenomenal so far and the total addressable market (basically, all of COPD) is so large. Plus the relentless buying over the last two weeks actually has me thinking near-term M&A is possible here? EOLS 0.00%↑ is probably the oddest pick of the bunch as they barely have the business model of a biotech but more like an aesthetics company. They have been radio silent since their Stifel presentation in November, but I still have a lot of interest in them long-term but I have no idea what the upcoming quarter’s sales number will look like. (Editor’s note: After I wrote this they released great Q4 2024 sales numbers AND even more importantly fantastic guidance with the kicker being that the filler line could be approved in 90 days. IT IS SO ON!)

Some slightly less favored but still loved commercial names:

GERN 0.00%↑ posted a sales number slightly below analyst expectations, and their Phase 3 myelofibrosis trial is enrolling slower than I would like (“what up with that?”), but I still think there is blockbuster potential across both targeted indications and they are getting close to profitability. The stock has dipped since I last wrote about them so the reward/risk is even more compelling now. KNSA 0.00%↑ has really no near-term pipeline catalysts but if ARCALYST is a blockbuster, which it is almost certainly tracking towards, the stock is still probably a double in time from these levels. Sjogren’s catalyst is borderline okay but it’s probably not until late 2026 at best?

Companies transitioning from clinical-stage names to commercial-stage in the next 12-18 months:

EWTX 0.00%↑ sounded highly encouraged that they could file for accelerated approval in Becker Muscular Dystrophy based on the draft guidance as I mentioned last time out but another rewatch still of their presentation shows how they will be bringing forward multiple new candidates in cardiology in the coming year. Seeing how the market is really most excited about the cardio side, and sales in Becker Muscular Dystrophy could fund an absolute juggernaut of a pipeline, it’s pretty exciting to think where that could head. This is a very smart company that could have a very broad cardiology pipeline in the next two years. On the off chance DMD works out that could be more upside still.

Another company that sounded really bullish about their future potential is SRRK 0.00%↑. The main headline was they raised their SMA sales guidance to peak sales of $2 billion from $1 billion. Of course company-guided sales guidance isn’t binding (or really worth much) but I’m personally excited about their future now that all relevant competition in muscle-targeted SMA treatments has been knocked out and this can be used as monotherapy or as an add-on therapy...hard to think why you wouldn’t use this drug if you could get it approved. And SMA drugs typically get approved thanks to the strong advocacy here. The floor is now much higher heading into the obesity readout and if it fails for some reason would make an excellent dip buy on a temporary panic.

But I also came away from the conference with newer ideas in clinical-stage names. In fact, a lot of them.

Here’s nine new ideas…

…some with catalysts in 2025, that caught my eye at JPM. None of these appeared in my 2025 “No Trades” portfolio (which, again, will get a performance update next week) so they should be a fresh even to long-term readers and I welcome feedback:

(But I think I’m right. 😉)